Bill Barnwell ran his annual column on the NFL teams most likely to win more games this season, and both New York teams are on it. The five are the Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Giants and Jets, with Kansas City at the top.
That is less flattering than it sounds. Three of those teams are recent contenders coming off disappointing years. The Giants and Jets are on the list because there was so little room left to fall.
What the Giants have going for them
Barnwell’s historical comparison for this Giants team is the 2016 group, which promoted Ben McAdoo to head coach, spent aggressively in free agency, and jumped into the playoffs. The parallel is a franchise with a new voice in charge and a roster that got meaningfully younger and more expensive in one offseason.
New York has won 13 games total over the past three seasons. John Harbaugh’s first year comes with Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo entering their second seasons, and a draft class headlined by Arvell Reese and Francis Mauigoa, who has been working as the starting right guard this summer.
The preseason has cooperated so far. The Giants beat the Dolphins 26-3 on Saturday and outgained them 390 yards to 102, and Harbaugh said afterward the team came out of a joint-practice week without a serious injury.
The Jets are a lower bar
Aaron Glenn’s first season produced three wins. Barnwell’s read on 2026 is measured: getting to five or six wins would be real improvement, and an actual playoff berth would be stunning.
The pieces are different than they were a year ago. Geno Smith is the quarterback, several defensive free agents came in, and the draft class brought Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. on offense. Smith went 7-for-7 with a touchdown in his preseason debut Friday in a 17-0 win over Pittsburgh, though that came against the Steelers’ third and fourth quarterbacks.
The other three are the interesting ones
Kansas City went 9-8 and was 2-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Barnwell’s argument is that close-game outcomes swing hard year to year, and Patrick Mahomes has won about 65 percent of those over his career. Winning half of them puts the Chiefs back in the playoffs.
Detroit fell from 7-2 in one-score games in 2024 to 2-5 last season. Baltimore was 1-4 in them and lost the AFC North in Week 18 when Tyler Loop missed a 44-yard field goal against Pittsburgh, after Lamar Jackson missed a month with a hamstring injury and never quite looked like himself again.
That is the throughline. Four of the five teams lost a pile of close games, and close games tend to even out.
